The Raiders game was a game to forget for the Green Bay Packers and myself. The entire game played out about as bad as it could. The best bets for the game went 0-2 on the night. With Aaron Jones not playing, the last bet was a scratch. After a good start to the year, I have fallen to 6-8. This week is different; this week, we get back on track.
First, here is a recap of the bets from the Raiders game.
Green Bay Packers Week Five Betting Results
Game Total over 44.5 – Not much of a recap here; besides, they couldn’t score. I thought both offenses would be in for a better night than they had. (Loss)
Packers +1.5 – The Packers had every opportunity to win this game. The defense played stout, but the offense had too many missed opportunities. A horse collar saved the night for the Raiders. (Loss)
Aaron Jones Over 49.5 Rush Yards – I am convinced this would’ve been crushed. AJ Dillon had 20 carries for 76 yards, his best game of the season. Aaron Jones might have hit this number with half the carries. (Scratch)
Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos Best Bets
AJ Dillon Over 36.5 Rush Yards
Hear me out a little bit here..This is gross. I am not banging the drum for AJ Dillon to get more touches. Aaron Jones needs to get the ball for this Packers offense to be efficient.
Matt Lafluer has always been conservative with his guys coming off injury. Against the Detroit Lions, Aaron Jones played 20 snaps to Dillons 38. Denver is the worst team in the league defending the run, giving up 5.6 yards per carry. The Packers have also signed James Robinson, and Dillon has been in trade talk rumors.
Give me an AJ Dillon with his job on the line vs. the worst run defense in the league.
Christian Watson Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Receivers have torched the Broncos defense, especially ones with speed. When Christian Watson is in, he is Jordan Love’s favorite target. As we saw against the Raiders, Watson can take any catch the distance. I think Watson explodes and goes for over 100 yards this week.
Hammer this.
Luke Musgrave Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
I had mentioned how receivers have killed the Broncos; the tight ends have done just as much damage. The Broncos are giving up 75 yards a game to tight ends. They are allowing a little over 12 yards per catch.
Matt Lafluer has had Musgrave a big part of every game plan.
If I had to bet when Musgrave has his big breakout game, this would be the game. Obviously, it may seem difficult with all the mouths to feed on offense, but this number could be hit in one play. Jordan Love has missed Musgrave a few times down the seam, splitting the safeties when they are in cover 2.
The Green Bay Packers also don’t have a lot of other options at the tight end position. Musgrave has 211 snaps compared to the next closest tight end at 106.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Musgrave have 75 yards and get his first touchdown.
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