With the NFL Draft a few days away, it is a good time to revisit Brian Gutekunst’s prior first-round draft picks. The Green Bay Packers hold the 25th draft pick. The most popular mocked players to the Packers are Iowa cornerback Cooper Dejean and Duke Offensive lineman Graham Barton. Both would be great picks for the Packers and would be good fits, but we all know a draft never goes how we expect it.
Let’s take at all of Gutekunst’s first-round picks.
Green Bay Packers First-Round Picks With Brian Gutekunst as General Manager
2018 – Jaire Alexander (18th Pick)
It’s hard to argue the result of this draft pick now. Green Bay was the 31st-ranked team against the pass in 2017, allowing 236.8 yards per game. Taking a corner was the right move. That makes this pick a “need pick”, not best available. Alexander was the fourth-ranked cornerback prospect by PFF that season. During the combine, he scored a 9.54 RAS score, which was 70th best all-time for corner prospects. He also achieved a 90 athleticism score, the 2nd best at the combine for corners that season. Coming out of college, Alexander was considered an explosive athlete with a high upside. Alexander was a hit for Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in the 2018 Class:
- Pass Breakups – 6 (Tied for 2nd)
- NFL Passer Rating Allowed – 94.0 (18th)
- Interceptions – 1 (Tied for 6th)
- Miss Tackle Percentage – 11.6% (11th)
- PFF rookie rank – 4th (72.4 rating)
2019- Rashan Gary (12th Pick)
Rashan Gary was the 8th-ranked edge defender by PFF in 2019. Notable players ranked higher but not selected before the 12th pick are Brian Burns, Montez Sweat, and Zach Allen. Like most Green Bay Packers draft picks, Rashan Gary had a great combine. He scored a 9.94 RAS and earned the third-highest athleticism score in his class. Rashan’s pre-draft analysis was eerily similar to Alexander’s. Lacks college production—a versatile player with high upside potential.
Going into the 2019 season, the Packers lost Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, and Muhammad Wilkerson to season-ending injuries. When the Packers selected Gary, it was a “need” to pick a versatile player. Other notable players selected after Gary are Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, and Christian Wilkins. I know it’s easy for me to look back years after the pick and say that Gutekunst missed on Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Jeff Simmons, and Montez Sweat. Still, it’s another case where Gutekunst chose potential upside over players with higher floors and college production. It took time for Gary to develop into a good player for Green Bay, and he is still young and has a lot of career ahead of him.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in the 2019 Class:
- Sacks – 3 (tied for 10th)
- Total Pressures – 15 (13th)
- Tackles – 13 (10th)
- PFF rookie rank – 26th (54.1 rating)
2019 – Darnell Savage (21st Pick)
Teams don’t often get two cracks at it in the draft’s first round. Green Bay was one of those lucky teams in 2019. Oddly enough, the player selected directly after Darnell Savage was Andre Dillard, who the Packers had just signed. That shows how hard it is to get these first-round draft picks correct.
Savage was the 2nd ranked safety prospect by PFF and had just come off back-to-back 86 overall graded seasons at Maryland. Savage had a good showing at the combine and ran a 4.36 time, which was good enough for the 8th fastest all-time. Savage’s overall RAS score was 8.35, the lowest on this list by over a point. Again, this is another example of a pick based on need, not the best player available, as many experts had savage as a day-two pick.
In this scenario, Gutekunst was able to get a player with the college production to back up the athleticism Green Bay holds in such high regard. Notable players who were taken after Savage are Josh Jacobs, who is not a Green Bay Packers, Montez Sweat, Johnathan Abram, and Deebo Samuel.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in the 2019 Class:
- Tackles – 48 (3rd)
- Missed Tackle Percentage – 20.6% (13th, Second worst in his class with at least 224 snaps)
- Forced Fumbles – 2 (Tied for 1st)
- Interceptions – 2 (Tied for 2nd)
- PFF rookie rank – 10th (67.1 rating)
2020 – Jordan Love (26th Pick)
I’m not going to go into too much detail on this pick. This was a controversial pick-up until last season, and unless Jordan Love followed up last season with another strong year, it still could be contentious. With all that being said, good GMs plan years into the future, and if you don’t have a franchise quarterback, then your team is generally terrible anyway. Other teams like to draft their quarterbacks, throw them to the sharks, and see if they sink or swim. Green Bay doesn’t subscribe to that philosophy, which has worked out well over the last 30-plus years.
2021- Eric Stokes (29th)
I call this draft pick the Kevin King special. I don’t think Green Bay would have reached for a corner this early if Kevin King had been playing off instead of the press to allow Tom Brady and the Buccaneers a cheap touchdown at the end of the first half in the NFC champion game in 2020. Most draft experts seemed to have Stokes going somewhere in the 2nd to 3rd round that year. Regardless of what the experts said, he fits the Green Bay mold well. Stokes scored a 9.38 RAS during the combine and was classified as a hyper-twitchy athlete. It’s something you hear often from Packer draft picks. With all that being said, if it wasn’t for injury, this pick was a surefire hit. Stokes had a better PFF rookie grade than Patrick Surtain, Tyson Campbell, and Asante Samuel Jr and was only 1 point lower than Jaycee Horn, who only played 142 total snaps.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in 2021 Class:
- NFL passer rating allowed – 78.8 (3rd)
- Pass Breakups – 9 (1st)
- Interceptions – 1 (Tied for 6th)
- Reception Percentage Allowed – 51% (2nd)
- Missed Tackle Rate – 9.7% (7th)
- PFF rookie rank – 3rd – (66.3 rating)
2022 – Quay Walker (22nd)
What if I told you the Green Bay Packers would select a defensive player with elite athleticism in the first round? I don’t mean to sound like the beginning of a 30 for 30 documentaries, but Quay Walker fits the same mold, just at a different position. Walker scored a 9.63 RAS at the combine, 91st out of 2419 prospects graded all time. Most draft experts had Walker being drafted somewhere in the second round. The funniest thing I found in my research was PFF compared Quay Walker to De’Vondre Campbell in the PFF Big Board book.
Walker wasn’t a polished product out of Georgia, and most of his criticism was he had to see it to attack it. Again, this is another example of Gutekunst taking a player with physical attributes who may lack and require requiring. Notable players drafted after Quay Walker are Tyler Smith, Tyler Linderbaum, Jermaine Johnson, Devin Lloyd, and Leo Chenal.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in 2022 Class:
- Tackles – 87 (1st)
- Missed Tackle Rate – 10.1% (Tied for 5th)
- Stops – 41 (1st)
- Pass Breakups – 5 (Tied for 1st)
- Total Pressures/ Sacks – 12 (2nd) / 2 (Tied for 2nd)
- PFF rookie rank – 6th (52.0 rating)
2022 – Devonte Wyatt (28th)
It’s hard to pass on a player who has won a national championship, recorded the 5th fastest 40-yard dash time for a defensive tackle, and scored a 9.56 RAS score during the combine. Green Bay made the choice I think most teams would have and selected one of the best prospects in the 2022 NFL draft. PFF had Wyatt ranked as the number-one defensive tackle prospect that season. To put it in perspective, Wyatt’s RAS score was 62nd best out of 1378 prospects graded all time. Anytime you draft 28th and have a chance at a guy like this, you should take it. Defensive linemen are premium in the NFL, and few men this size move that well. With all that being said, the Packers still selected a hyper-athletic player.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in 2022 Class:
- Total Pressures – 12 (2nd)
- Sacks – 2 (2nd)
- Tackles – 9 (12th)
- Missed Tackle Rate – 7.1% (7th)
- Stops – 5 (10th, worst among rookies with at least 216 snaps)
- PFF rookie rank – 2nd (69.9 rating) (Jordan Davis was number one his teammate at Georgia)
2023 – Lukas Van Ness (13th)
Green Bay could use a Greek god at the defensive end, and they got one when they drafted “Hercules” with the 13th pick in the 2023 draft. Like every other first-round pick except one, he scored a 9.39 RAS at the combine and ran a good 40 times. Reports before the draft were that he still needed development in key pass rush areas but had the raw tools to develop into a good pass rusher in the NFL. Does that sound familiar? Notable Players drafted after Van Ness are Broderick Jones, Will McDonald, Christian Gonzalez, Jack Campbell, and Nolan Smith.
First-Year Production compared to other rookies in the 2023 Class:
- Total Pressures – 22 (6th)
- Sacks – 6 (5th)
- Tackles – 25 (5th)
- Missed Tackle Rate – 6.1 % (2nd)
- PFF rookie rank – 7th (62.3 rating)
Conclusion
In my opinion, the Packers have a very specific formula for drafting players in the first round. Some people may wonder why I kept listing each draft pick’s RAS score. RAS is a statistic developed by Kent Lee Platte to boil downsize, speed, strength, and agility into one number. It’s clearly evident that the Packers value those things at times more than what the film might tell you about that player.
It also feels like Green Bay prefers to slightly reach for positions of need rather than trade back to get more value or take the best player available. The Packers are unique this season and will probably be in this situation with Jordan Love in the foreseeable future.
They are the youngest team in the NFL and managed to win despite that fact last season. Being young allows the Packers some freedom with the salary cap, and the Packers might have a couple of years’ window before some of the young homegrown talent starts to weigh heavily on your salary cap.
Take a swing on a player who might be able to really make a difference now, as opposed to a project that might take a few years to develop with the right coaching. Sometimes, being a good GM isn’t about being a caretaker for the future; it’s about knowing when to push your chips to the middle and see if you can come home with the gold.
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