What once looked like a high chance of the Green Bay Packers making the playoffs now looks grime. That’s the NFL. If you don’t show up every game with your A-game, someone is always waiting to knock you off. Thanks to the Giants and Buccaneers, the Packers are now hanging on by a thread to make the playoffs. Let’s look at the NFC playoff picture and what the Packers need to fall their way if they want to punch their ticket to the postseason.
Green Bay Packers Current Standings and Projections
The Packers have fallen to 11th place in the NFC playoff race. All the teams that the Packers needed to lose ended up winning. The Rams, Seahawks, and Saints all moved to 7-7 on the season, putting Green Bay one game back on these teams for the wild card. The Panthers managed to knock off the Falcons, but since the Packers also lost, Atlanta holds the tiebreaker. On a positive note, the Vikings lost to the Bengals and fell to 7-7. A few weeks ago, they looked like a shoe in to be the sixth seed in the NFC, but injuries and poor QB play have knocked them down with the rest of the pack.
Currently, PFF gives Green Bay a 28% chance to make the playoffs. They have the 24th hardest schedule remaining: the Panthers and two divisional games against the Vikings and Bears. The Vikings game should end up being a critical game for both teams. PFF gives the Vikings a 64 percent chance of making the playoffs, but they have the 13th hardest schedule remaining. However you look at it, the Packers need to win their three remaining games if they want to get in.
Important games
Here are a few games that the Packers would like to go their way:
- Saints at Rams.
- Either team can theoretically win this one. The Packers own the tiebreaker against both squads. However, whoever wins this matchup would need only to win nine games. In my opinion, both teams have a moderately challenging schedule. The question is whether the 49ers will rest their starters in week 18 against the Rams. For this one, I’m leaning toward the Saints winning. They have the Buccaneers and the Saints. Both are divisional opponents until the end of the year. That isn’t easy for any team, including the Packers.
- Colts at Falcons.
- This one is pretty straightforward. The Packers want to see them lose out. Since the Packers don’t hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, we want them not to win another game.
- Seahawks at Titans.
- I don’t know what it is with birds of prey, but we want them all to lose. The Packers would prefer them to lose all their remaining games. They have two AFC opponents remaining. This would only help their tiebreaker chances if they won nine games.
- Lions at Vikings.
- At this point, the division is out of reach. The Lions running away with it for a higher seed position will only benefit us, and the Vikings will have to play them twice. The third opponent would be the Packers, which the Packers need to win.
- Jaguars at Buccaneers.
- The loss to the Buccaneers hurts. Now, we are hoping that they win the division. If they can beat the Jaguars and then the Saints, that will help the Packers the most.
Less important games
- Cardinals at Bears.
- It’s just fun to root against the Bears. They still suck, and it’s great.
- Cowboys at Dolphins.
- Remember when I said we want the 49ers to be playing for something in week 18? Well, the Cowboys are the team that is threatening the one seed. If they can win and make the 49ers care about week 18, it helps the Packers if the Rams beat the Saints.
- Giants at Eagles.
- For the same reason we want the Cowboys to beat the Dolphins, we want the Eagles to beat the Giants. It’s to keep the Lions playing for a top seed. They probably would do that anyway with Dan Campbell at the helm, but any extra motivation is appreciated.
- Ravens at 49ers.
- We need them to stay within range of losing the one seed. It would also be nice for them to lose some confidence going into the postseason. I don’t think anyone wants to play them in either conference.
The Panthers
None of this list even matters if the Green Bay Packers don’t beat the worst team in the NFL. If they can’t beat the Panthers, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. No matter how you look at this thing, winning three games in a row is hard for any team in the NFL. I will hold out hope that the Packers can get it done. What’s the point of being a sports fan if you can’t be hopeful and excited about the possibility of winning?
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