Packers News
Green Bay Packers: Top Five MVP Odds Favorites Compared to Jordan Love
Published
12 months agoon
By
Zach WellerWe have arrived at week 17. The entire sports world seemingly agrees that one player deserves to be MVP. Lamar Jackson is currently minus 10,000 to win the award, with some sportsbooks even as high as 20,000. I thought comparing stats and circumstances for each of the top five NFL MVP odds favorites to Jordan Love would be interesting.
Hopefully, shedding some light on the criminally underrated season, Jordan Love has been having as the quarterback for the Green Bay Packers.
Christian McCaffrey +5000
Christian McCaffrey |
Player |
Jordan Love |
2023 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
21 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
2 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
90.6 (1st) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
82.6 Run Block (1st) |
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
90.2 (1st) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
90.7 (1st) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th) |
+ 17.7% (3rd) Success Rate – 55.9% |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
5.
This one was difficult. McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill were the only two non-quarterback players in the top ten of MVP odds. There is no denying McCaffrey’s impact on the Niners the past two seasons. However, McCaffrey has a better offense and defense unit around him overall.
While I hate the trope that only quarterbacks can win the MVP award, it’s true. Running backs just don’t have the impact that quarterbacks have anymore. McCaffrey should win Offensive Player of the Year, in my opinion. Jordan Love has done more with less in this comparison.
The Niners have a plethora of lethal offensive options. McCaffrey is the best weapon the Niners have, but they would be fine without him, something they have proved in the past.
Josh Allen +3000
Josh Allen |
Player |
Jordan Love |
4404 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
42 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
19 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
90.8 (1st) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
70.4 PB (10th) 62.5 RB (15th) |
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
78.9 (7th) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
74.1 (14th) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th) |
20.6 % (4th) |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
4.
Josh Allen should have much higher odds, in my opinion. He is leading the league in total touchdowns. Love and Allen are in similar circumstances. Both offensive lines aren’t amazing. Each has similar weapons on the outside except for Stefon Diggs, who is having a down season.
They have both dealt with below-average running games. Josh Allen would be my number one vote for MVP today. That only bolsters Jordan Love’s case when you look at their production and circumstances side by side. Love has also played without several key offensive pieces most of the season. Josh Allen has had most of his offense the same the entire season.
Brock Purdy +2500
Brock Purdy |
Player |
Jordan Love |
4424 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
33 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
11 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
88.4 (5th) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
54 PB (26th) 82.6 RB (1st) |
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
90.2 (1st) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
90.7 (1st) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th) |
42.7 % (1st) |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
3.
I have nothing against Brock Purdy. He has had a spectacular season. However, when I think about what makes a player “valuable,” it means more than production and wins. The definition of value is doing more with less. Brock Purdy is playing on arguably the most complete roster in the NFL. Just look at the comparison. He has the top-rated defense and skill position group in the NFL. I will never say his job is easy, but he should be winning. No one would think he is an MVP candidate if the Niners were 6-10 with these numbers.
In my opinion, winning matters too much in the MVP race. Value is dragging a team that isn’t loaded with talent to a higher ceiling. Purdy hasn’t carried the 49ers anywhere. They are right; everyone thought they would be the top seed in the NFC. They have been somewhere before with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.
Jordan Love and the Packers overachieved. Most people didn’t expect them to be competing for a playoff spot. Love has dealt with a less-than-average running game, and O-line play for most of the season. He didn’t have Aaron Jones and Christian Watson for the Majority of the season but still found a way to get this team in contention.
He also played without David Bakhtiari, one of the best-left tackles in football all season. The last time I checked, Trent Williams has played 14 games this season.
Dak Prescott +1600
Dak Prescott |
Player |
Jordan Love |
4479 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
34 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
9 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
90.5 (2nd) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
66.9 PB (15th) 64.1 RB (12th) |
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
84.4 (6th) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
79.5 (4th) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th) |
15.9% (7th) |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
2.
When discussing Dak, you should also include Ceedee Lamb in any MVP discussion. One-third of Dak’s passing yards and touchdowns have come from Ceedee. For most of the season, Tyreek Hill was the talk of the NFL, with whispers of MVP votes. Ceedee is not far behind him. Lamb has 1651 receiving yards and ten touchdowns on the season. Currently, PFF has Lamb graded out as the 3rd best receiver in football. He is ranked ahead of Justin Jefferson, A.J Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Deebo Samuel, and Davante Adams.
I’m not discounting the job that Prescott has done this year, but Jordan Love has no receivers over 700 yards this season. In fact, Love has no receivers with over eight touchdowns, either. That speaks volumes to the value Jordan Love brings to this Packers team. He doesn’t depend on one receiver. If you add in the Cowboys outstanding defense, Dak has been gifted some free games that Jordan Love simply has not.
*Bonus* Aaron Rodgers 2008 Season With the Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers (2008) |
Player |
Jordan Love |
4245 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
32 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
13 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
79.1 (7th) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
79.3 PB (10th) 92.7 RB (9th) |
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
66.2 (18th) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
69.7 (12th) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th ) |
N/A |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
Bonus
Back in 2008, the NFL only played 17 regular season games. This is the final Jordan Love to Aaron Rodgers stat comparison in their first year as starters. It looks eerily similar. The True test for Jordan Love, however, will be sustained success. Can he continue to improve and grow for years to come? The Green Bay Packers may have pulled off the impossible if he can do that—forty-five years in a row of great quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson -10000
Lamar Jackson |
Player |
Jordan Love |
4499 |
Total Yards |
4091 |
29 |
Total Touchdowns
|
34
|
9 |
Total Turnovers |
12 |
90.3 (3rd) |
PFF grade (Position Rank) |
81.3 (15th)
|
75.6 PB (3rd) 67.5 RB (8th)
|
PFF O-line grade |
70.4 PB (10th) 54.6 RB (25th)
|
89.6 (2nd) |
PFF Overall Defense Grade |
70.1 (23rd)
|
76 (10th) |
PFF Overall Receiver Grade |
76.7 (8th ) |
18.4% (6th) |
DVOA % |
15.7% (8th)
|
1.
Last but not least, our seemingly soon-to-be NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. This is a classic case of how wins and losses weigh heavily into the MVP vote. The only thing that truly matters is getting to the playoffs. If there were a best regular season team award, I believe the Baltimore Ravens would win it. Since that award doesn’t exist, the media members who voted on MVP included regular-season team success in their formula. You can’t deny that the Baltimore Ravens are one of the three best teams in football.
When you look at the raw stats, Lamar’s production has been good but not the most valuable in the league. This defense could likely win some games with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. They almost won a playoff game with him last season. All I’m trying to say is that Jordan Love has less help than Lamar and has produced much more for his team. Lamar’s legs are one of the most dangerous weapons in NFL history, but at the end of the day only has one more rushing touchdown than Jordan Love. Outside of wins and losses, Jordan Love has had the better season.
Conclusion
Realistically, I know that Jordan Love probably isn’t going to win MVP this season. I wanted to make the point that Jordan deserves to be in the conversation. This season has been a rollercoaster ride for the Green Bay Packers, mostly going in the direction Jordan Love takes them. He has displayed true value for the Green Bay Packers this season.
I hope that in the future, he will continue to grow and one day hoist this award. Benjamin Franklin famously said, “Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning.” I think Jordan Love’s career is destined for success and meaning as long as he stays the course.
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