The Green Bay Packers have a unique opportunity ahead of them. They can start to row the ship in the right direction against a historically bad defense and dysfunctional franchise or put the final nail in the “rebuilding year” coffin. Lafluer and company have had all bye week to prepare for this delectable matchup, and so have I. Here is my game plan from the armchair.
Green Bay Packers Offense
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again. Run the Football! According to PFF, Denver has one front-seven defender in the top 32 against the run. That defender is Josey Jewell. Jewell is currently ranked 32nd out of 83 against the run. Denver is now allowing 440 yards per game. 172.3 of those are rushing yards allowed. The game plan needs to be 60 percent run and 40 percent pass.
Aaron Jones returning should allow the Packers to scheme up some different looks in the run game. I would avoid running towards Patrick Surtain. According to PFF, he has been outstanding against the run this year and is currently ranked 14th among all corners. Even with Jones returning, I would heavily utilize Dillon this week.
Mike Purcell is an excellent target to run against. He is ranked 112th out of 131 against the run. I will try to take advantage of Purcell’s poor play and run plays inside the tackles when Dillon is in the game. I would even scheme a few packages with Jones and Dillon in the backfield together.
The Passing Offense
The passing game needs to be a compliment to the run game. I wouldn’t throw the ball until Denver shows they can stop the run first. This should hopefully create some opportunities for play-action calls. I would also tell Jordan Love to take any matchup against Damarri Mathis. Mathis is currently the 111th-ranked corner, according to PFF. That is out of 112 corners. He has only played 38 snaps but hasn’t been good in those snaps. He has missed 11 tackles and allows a 143.4 QB rating when targeted.
The last thing is making sure Luke Musgrave gets more targets. For someone currently leading the NFL in average yards of separation(5 yards), he needs to get the ball more. Neither of Denver’s linebackers is excellent in pass coverage, which should open up some significant opportunities for the rookie.
Green Bay Packers Defense
The talk of the offseason was Sean Payton fixing Russell Wilson. Honestly, I think he has done an excellent job. Russ is ranked in the top half of the NFL in every category. Payton has done a fantastic job utilizing Russell’s legs this season. Russell has scrambled 15 times for 127 yards. He has also even schemed up a few designed QB runs as well.
There is one clear thing, however. This isn’t the same Russell Wilson that dismantled the Packers in years past. Russell has struggled under pressure and when blitzed. His passer rating when blitzed is 65.2. He’s also had ten passes batted down so far this season. I would coach the D-line to get their hands up this week if they can’t get home.
Out of 219 dropbacks, 86 have been under pressure for Russell. Most of those pressures come when Russell is not blitzed. Sending four this week with the occasional blitz should be just what the doctor ordered. Denver’s running backs have been terrible in pass protection this year. So, a few well-timed blitzes should create pressure.
Russell has also been best when throwing the ball deep this season. His passer rating is 128.5 when throwing beyond 20 yards. I would coach the defensive backs to keep everything in front of them and wait until Russ is under pressure to make a big play.
Run Defense
Defending against the run should be simple this week. Clark, Wyatt, and Slayton need to win in the trenches. The stats don’t show it, but the Packers have the edge in the trenches this week.
Sean Payton likes to run outside of the tackles. 66 of the Broncos’ 109 rushing attempts have been run at or outside the offensive tackles. It will be important that Gary and Smith set the edge and squeeze it down.
Final Thoughts
Lastly, if there were one glaring weakness to exploit, it would be morale. The Broncos don’t have much to be excited about after giving up 70 points to the Dolphins or openly shopping the entire roster. This team is in the dumps. The Green Bay Packers, however, have seemingly stayed strong through a couple of rough games. This tells me they believe they are a much better team than people give them credit for. All they have left to do is prove it.
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