All the playoff dominoes fell into place so far this week. The Bears beat the Vikings, and the Cowboys defeated the Seahawks. If the Green Bay Packers are going to make the playoffs, they will have to make a run in the season’s final six games. It should widen the playoff door for the home stretch if the Packers can steal a win at home versus the Chiefs.
Vegas has the Packers as a six-point dog at home, which is a bit insulting after a strong win vs the Lions on Thanksgiving. Nevertheless, most of the media and sports world aren’t giving the Packers much of a chance at home versus the reigning NFL MVP. Here are the three keys to beating Patrick Mahomes and the Taylor Swift gang.
Green Bay Packers Defense Must Create Pressure
I don’t want pressure to be confused with blitzing. If the Packers will have any chance defensively, they will have to get home with four. PFF has the Chiefs offensive line graded out as the 14 best in the NFL. However, they are giving Mahomes, on average, 3.04 seconds to throw. That is 4th best in the NFL. To put that into perspective, Jordan Love averages 2.76 seconds to throw on average. PFF has Green Bay’s offensive line graded out third best in pass protection. What do these stats mean? Mahomes has mastered manipulating the pocket and finding time and space to throw. The Packers front will have to play disciplined physical football. Often, when Mahomes is getting sacked, it’s because there is no room in the pocket to escape. More than any game this year, getting some production from our interior lineman will be key. When Mahomes is under pressure, he has a 60.8 passer rating and has thrown three touchdowns to six interceptions.
Mahomes is having a very similar year to Jordan Love and the Packers. He is operating with younger and less proven weapons than ever before in his career. Even so, he is playing well. Even though Mahomes plays with young receivers, he still has old trusty Kelce. There is a solid argument to be made that he is the best to play the position, which brings me to key number two.
Don’t Let Kelce Beat You
On Sunday night, Kelce will be the best receiver on the field for both teams. Don’t let him beat you. Double him. Triple team him! Whatever it takes to make the ball go somewhere else. So far this season, the Chiefs receiver room has been up and down. Mahomes and Chiefs are credited with 20 drops on the season. (Note: Jordan Love has 19 drops and is tied for fourth most) That is tied for third-most with Kirk Cousins and Josh Allen. Kelce is only responsible for three of those drops. Two of which came early in the season when he was battling injury.
Now that the Packers secondary is getting healthy, they should have the players to matchup and contain Kelce. Another large part of holding Kelce is not allowing off-schedule plays to him. Kelce and Mahomes seem to have a Jedi mind connection when plays go off schedule. Suppose the Packers are successful at key number one, pressure. That should help limit some of those off-schedule opportunities. Another way to help eliminate those opportunities is to try to play as much man on him as possible with our best cover players, like Alexander, who looks set to return to the field this weekend. The last and most important way to limit Kelce and Mahomes is keeping them off the field, which brings me to the final key.
Win the Time of Possession While Staying Aggressive
I know this is a cliche when you’re talking about Patrick Mahomes. Every talking media head has said this over and over again. Keep the ball away from Mahomes; you have a better chance of winning. I think that is only half true. You need to keep the ball away from Mahomes while also staying aggressive and putting points on the board. Since Mahomes has been in the NFL, he has always had a knack for finding his way back into games when limited on opportunity and time. Just ask the Buffalo Bills in the 2021 AFC Divisional round.
The Packers must find a good balance of trying to play, keeping away, and staying aggressive. Things haven’t been easy for the Chiefs this year on offense, but the defense has been great. The Packers need to score as many points as possible any way they can get them. So trying to go on 12-play 8-minute drives might be out of the question; however, if the offense can hit some big plays and score early, it’s like the Lions game. That should allow Barry to call the defense how he prefers—eliminating big plays and rushing the passer.
Contact/Follow us @Packer_Notes on Twitter, Subscribe to our Newsletter here, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Green Bay Packers news, notes, opinions, and analysis.
Follow this link and use promo code BADGERNOTES for 25% off your next True Classic order.
Join our watch party on Playback Sports and stream Packers games by following this link.
